矽谷銀行爆雷事件的啟示 The Unfolding of Silicon Valley Bank's Implosion
編按：SVB延燒到Circle，讓有1:1美元儲備的USDC有depeg的風險，進一步引發FUD擠兌效應。系統性金融風險來得措手不及，原以為是最安全的資產反而變成最危險的。
作者 S. HSU, Advisor of Enlighten Law Group
昨天矽谷發生一件堪稱新創圈核爆等級的大事：矽谷銀行（“Silicon Valley Bank , SVB”）——原本位居美國第 16 大、擁有 2,120 億美元資產的銀行——在 1 天內股價暴跌 60%，收盤後又補跌 22%。而且更扯的是，3天前，SVB 的穆迪信用評級還是 “A等級”。富比世這幾天還稱SVB為美國的頂尖銀行。甚至看各大投行分析師給SVB的評價，截至昨天只有一位賣出，其他多為持平或是買進，根本沒有人預計會炸鍋。
結果我們在亞洲時區正熟睡時，摩根大通、美國銀行、富國銀行均應聲下跌 >6%。接下來會發生什麼？這究竟是 (a) 雷曼危機重現還是 (b) 小題大作？
其實雷曼兄弟和 SVB 本質上的差異在於： --> 雷曼兄弟與許多同業當年創造許多高風險的金融商品，並且大量將這些商品推銷給全球消費者。雷曼倒閉時，他們擁有大約 6,000 億美元的資產。 -->相較之下，目前SVB 帳面上擁有約 1,000 多億美元的資產（經過這幾天的波動跟擠兌）。因此今天的事件規模顯然是小得多。
然而，數萬間的私募基金、創投基金和新創公司財務會受到重大影響，如果美國政府沒有盡速解決，許多公司甚至無法發薪。美國約 50% 獲創投基金投資的新創公司，正是SVB 的存戶。根據數據庫PitchBook 的資料顯示，獲得創投基金投資的美國新創公司＞ 130,000 間。也就是說，這當中將近半數的 65,000 間新創公司，是 SVB 的存戶。
由於 SVB 的存款中 97.3% 已逾美國聯邦存款保險公司(FDIC) 250,000 美元的保證門檻，這些存戶有可能會＊拿不回存款＊。美國政府可能最終被迫介入對存戶的存款擔保，也就是先墊付 1,790 億美元。
嗯，那事情是怎麼搞到這種地步? 基本上可以分幾個原因階段： (1) SVB 從矽谷新創那邊拿到的存款從 2019~2021 年間暴漲了 3X（從617.6 --> 1,892 億美元），而當創投基金大舉向大大小小的新創公司大撒幣時，SVB 也做了同樣的事，大量購買固定收益的債券。
(2) 由於當時矽谷新創公司的存款量暴增，SVB放款速度趕不上管理層想要達到的收益率，於是他們用這些存款購買了＞ 800 億美元的不動產抵押貸款證券（Mortgage Backed Securities MBS）配置到銀行帳上 「持有至到期 (hold-to-maturity HTM) 」的投資組合部位，其中 97% 的 MBS 的期限> 10 年，加權平均年收益率為 1.56%。
(3) 該策略的問題在於，隨著美聯儲在 2022 -2023 年持續的升息，SVB 的 收益率僅為1.56%的MBS 價值應聲暴跌。畢竟市場上其他投資人現在可以用比這高 2.5X 收益率從美國政府購得長期「無風險」債券。
(4)這原本還不打緊，只要 SVB 能維持存款的水位，原本不至於造成流動性問題，因為這些債券還是會配回本息給銀行。 慘就慘在這幾天 SVB 公告他們以 18 億美元的損失賠售了 210 億美元的可供出售 (Available For Sale AFS) 證券，並正在募集 22.5 億美元的股權和公司債，這就引發了投資人跟存戶集體恐慌。畢竟原本多數投資人都以為SVB 有足夠的流動性，沒有落魄到需要賠售資產。接著，存戶從 3 月 9 日開始從銀行提取高達 420 億美元的存款，導致銀行擠兌。截至 3 月 9 日營業結束，該銀行的現金餘額約＊負9.58 億＊美元。
最諷刺的是， SVB 其實沒有做什麼高風險投資或是創造不該創造的金融商品，做的算是屬性保守的投資，卻因為升息的環境搞死了自己。這就像當你每天只吃生菜沙拉卻死於心臟病一樣離譜......
話說回來，自從 Covid-19 爆發以來，這世界一直都讓人感到很奇怪，可以說是越來越脫離邏輯與現實的感覺。(還是說只有我一個人這麼認為….)
p.s. 矽谷銀行的CEO CFO CMO於2週前分別出脫11%, 32%, 28%合計逾 $4.4百萬美金的股票，應該以內線交易起訴。(至於有些人堅持，只要「先依照 10b5-1預先申請出售持股就是合法」，這是今年一月底才申請的，緊接著二月執行。美國都升息多久了，去年底準備財報的時候，高層應該就已經心知肚明大事不妙，卻一致對外宣稱一切安好，甚至大方領取富比世頂尖銀行獎項，自己則是申請出脫為數不低的股份。以一般理性第三人的角度觀之，難謂無惡意。）
另外還有原訂發布裁員的新創公司，因為矽谷銀行爆掉推遲裁員，因為發不出資遣費。黑色新聞不斷疊加上去讓人眼花撩亂。 p.s.2 3/13台灣早上(美國3/12傍晚)，美國聯準會公告要緊急介入保障存戶全數取回存款，也算是給了一個可以穩定市場的交代，但同時也表明沒有要救ＳＶＢ的股東跟無擔保債權人。https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312b.htm
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An Armageddon event basically just happened in Silicon Valley yesterday: Silicon Valley Bank(“SVB”)— the #16 largest US bank with $212 Billion assets— just crashed 60% in 1 day & fell 22% post-close. SVB had a Moody’s credit rating of A just 3 days ago. Forbes hailed them as one of America's best banks, also just a few days ago. Securities analysts also didn't see this coming, ratings were neutral or positive, only one recommended selling before this all imploded.
Overnight while we were sleeping in Asia, JP Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, all dropped ＞6%. What's next? Is this (a) a Lehman crisis moment or (b) overblown? The difference between Lehman and SVB is Lehman and their peers were making a killing creating new exotic (read toxic) financial products and selling to consumers all over the world and simultaneously trading against those clients. When Lehman fell, they had roughly $600 Billion in assets. Currently, SVB has roughly >$100 Billion in assets (considering the fluctuations these past few days). Thus the scale of todays events is meaningfully smaller.
However, tens of thousands of PE firms, VC funds, and startups are impacted, many will not be able to make payroll if the situation isn’t resolved soon. SVB has 50% of US VC-backed startups as customers. There are over 130,000 VC-backed companies, according to PitchBook. That's nearly 65,000 startups that used SVB.
Since 97.3% of deposits in SVB were above the FDIC $250,000 threshold and are uninsured, the US government will likely have to step in here and expand deposit guarantees to all depositors, which is $179 Billion. (Billionaire Bill Ackman has called for government intervention over the weekend.)
Ok, so how did the situation get so severe? In several stages:
(1)SVB's deposits increased 3x from 2019 to 2021 ($61.76 --> $189.20 Billion), and while VCs poured excess dry powder into startups, SVB did the same thing, but into Fixed-Rate Treasuries.
(2) As deposits from startups ballooned, SVB couldn’t lend money fast enough to generate the yield they wanted to see on this capital, so they purchased > $80 billion in Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) with these deposits for their hold-to-maturity (HTM) portfolio, and 97% of these MBS were 10+ year duration, with a weighted average yield of 1.56%.
(3) The issue with this strategy is that as the Fed hiked rates in 2022 and continued to do so through 2023, the value of SVB’s MBS plummeted. This is because investors can now purchase long-duration "risk-free" bonds from the Fed at a 2.5x higher yield.
(4)This was not supposed to be a liquidity issue as long as SVB maintained an adequate level of deposits, since these securities would pay out more than they cost eventually.
However, when SVB announced that they had sold $21 Billion of their Available For Sale (AFS) securities at a $1.8 Billion loss, and were raising another $2.25 Billion in equity and debt, it seemed desperate and sparked panic, since most investors were under the impression that SVB had enough liquidity to avoid selling their AF positions. Investors and depositors reacted by initiating withdrawals of $42 billion in deposits from SVB on March 9th, causing a classic bank run.
As of the close of business on March 9th, the bank had a *negative* cash balance of approximately $958 million.
The most bizarre part of all this is that SVB imploded while buying US treasuries, too, supposedly a Safe Haven Asset Class. Their investments were supposed to be relatively conservative. Basically akin to dying from a heart attack when you only eat kale and broccoli…
The world has been sooooo weird since Covid-19 but I think every day, events around the world are getting increasingly surreal.
p.s. SVB's CEO, CFO and CMO sold >$4.4 Million in stock over the last 2 weeks. (CEO sold 11% , CFO sold 32%, and CMO sold 28% their positions) Highly unethical, many have stated they should be prosecuted for insider trading. Also, some Silicon Valley startup was set to announce layoffs yesterday, but had to cancel the announcement, because the SVB collapse means it currently doesn't have the money to offer severance....
p.s.2 As of 3/12 (6:15 p.m. EDT), the US Federal Reserve issued a statement: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312b.htm
Basically, 1) All depositors of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank will be fully protected ; 2) Shareholders and certain unsecured debtholders will not be protected ; 3) New Fed 13(3) facility announced with $25 billion from ESF to backstop bank deposits
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